The global seed industry is at a pivotal moment, with a market value soaring to approximately $54 billion in 2023 — an impressive 3.5-fold increase since 1996. This growth is largely driven by the rise of genetically modified (GM) seeds, which now represent almost 50% of the market despite covering only 18% of the global planting area.

      全球種子行業(yè)正處于關鍵時刻，2023 年市值飆升至約 540 億美元，自 1996 年以來增長了 3.5 倍，令人印象深刻。這種增長主要是由轉(zhuǎn)基因 （GM） 種子的興起推動的，盡管轉(zhuǎn)基因種子僅占全球種植面積的 18%，但現(xiàn)在占市值的近 50%。

      Seeds are a highly R&D-intensive sector, with leading global companies investing an average of 14% of their sales in research and development — significantly higher than other areas of the agri-food chain and comparable to the pharmaceutical industry. Over the past three decades, a total of 137 GM traits have been introduced across 12 crops, with corn leading the way, accounting for 52% of these innovations. This trend highlights the critical role of innovation in driving market dynamics.

      種子是一個高度研發(fā)密集型的行業(yè)，全球領先的公司平均將其銷售額的 14% 投入到研發(fā)中 — 明顯高于農(nóng)業(yè)食品鏈的其他領域，與制藥行業(yè)相當。在過去的三十年里，共有 137 種轉(zhuǎn)基因性狀被引入 12 種作物，其中玉米處于領先地位，占這些創(chuàng)新的 52%。這一趨勢凸顯了創(chuàng)新在推動市場動態(tài)方面的關鍵作用。

      Rising seed prices have primarily fueled market growth, reflecting the value added to farmers through innovative traits that enhance income. An analysis of US GM seed prices from 1996 to 2022 reveals a consistent upward trend, though a notable decline between 2014 and 2018.

      不斷上漲的種子價格主要推動了市場增長，反映了通過提高收入的創(chuàng)新性狀為農(nóng)民帶來的附加值。對 1996 年至 2022 年美國轉(zhuǎn)基因種子價格的分析顯示，盡管在 2014 年至 2018 年期間顯著下降，但呈持續(xù)上升趨勢。

      This slump was primarily due to a lack of new trait introductions in cotton. Following the introduction of the Bollgard III trait in 2011, no new trait was added to cotton until 2020, when the XtendFlex trait was introduced. Since 2021, seed prices have risen again, mainly driven by new trait introductions, increased commodity prices, and higher farmer’s income.

      這種下滑主要是由于棉花缺乏新的性狀引入。繼 2011 年引入 Bollgard III 性狀后，棉花才新增性狀，直到 2020 年引入 XtendFlex 性狀。自 2021 年以來，種子價格再次上漲，主要是由于新性狀的引入、商品價格上漲和農(nóng)民收入增加。

      Looking ahead, the introduction of new GM crops and the adoption of GM technology in emerging markets will be crucial for sustaining growth.

      展望未來，新興市場引入新的轉(zhuǎn)基因作物和采用轉(zhuǎn)基因技術對于維持增長至關重要。

      The Asia-Pacific region is particularly noteworthy, with significant developments in China, India, the Philippines, Indonesia, Bangladesh, and Australia. China is shifting its stance on GM technology, with traits for corn and soybeans expected to be introduced soon. In 2021, China launched a pilot project for GM corn and soybeans, which has expanded significantly. By 2024, China’s GM pilot area is estimated to have increased 150% over the previous year, reaching 1.6 million acres, though this still represents only about 1.5% of China’s total corn planted area. A strategic focus on food security and self-reliance drives the recent policy developments in China regarding GM and New Breeding Techniques (NBTs).

      亞太地區(qū)尤其值得注意，中國、印度、菲律賓、印度尼西亞、孟加拉國和澳大利亞都取得了重大進展。中國正在改變對轉(zhuǎn)基因技術的立場，預計玉米和大豆的性狀將很快推出。2021 年，中國啟動了轉(zhuǎn)基因玉米和大豆試點項目，該項目已大幅擴大。到 2024 年，中國的轉(zhuǎn)基因試點面積估計比上一年增加了 150%，達到 160 萬英畝，盡管這仍然僅占中國玉米總種植面積的 1.5% 左右。對糧食安全和自力更生的戰(zhàn)略關注推動了中國最近關于轉(zhuǎn)基因和新育種技術 （NBT） 的政策發(fā)展。

      The commercialization of GM seeds could significantly enhance their value and lead to a transformative shift in the Chinese seed industry, similar to the changes seen in the US during the late 1990s and early 2000s. Additionally, NBTs offer the potential to introduce many new traits to food crops previously untouched by GM technology. Chinese companies are heavily involved in NBT research, accounting for about one-quarter of the 700+ traits in the industry pipeline, based on S&P Global’s Seed Innovation database.

      轉(zhuǎn)基因種子的商業(yè)化可以顯著提高其價值，并導致中國種子行業(yè)的變革性轉(zhuǎn)變，類似于美國在 1990 年代末和 2000 年代初看到的變化。此外，NBT 有可能為以前未受轉(zhuǎn)基因技術觸及的糧食作物引入許多新性狀。根據(jù) S&P Global 的種子創(chuàng)新數(shù)據(jù)庫，中國公司大量參與 NBT 研究，約占行業(yè)管道中 700+ 性狀的四分之一。

      In the next 10-20 years, we expect the Chinese seed industry to be unrecognizable from its current state, with significant implications for the global seed market as competitive Chinese companies expand internationally. No clear pathway for international seed players for Foreign Direct Investment in China for GM traits and key crops would create a challenge to benefit from GM commercialization in the country.

      在未來 10 到 20 年，我們預計中國種子行業(yè)將與目前的狀況面目全非，隨著有競爭力的中國公司進行國際擴張，這將對全球種子市場產(chǎn)生重大影響。對于在中國進行外國直接投資的轉(zhuǎn)基因性狀和關鍵作物的國際種子參與者來說，沒有明確的途徑，這將對從中國的轉(zhuǎn)基因商業(yè)化中受益構成挑戰(zhàn)。

      In summary, while challenges such as regulatory hurdles and market acceptance persist, the future of the seed industry looks promising. Innovation through GM technology and NBTs will drive growth in established markets like North America and South America, as well as in emerging markets in the Asia-Pacific region, despite ongoing uncertainties in Europe. Harmonization of regulations at the global level is crucial for NBTs to effectively contribute to seed market growth, as disparities can hinder technology adoption. S&P Global’s analysis of countries with NBT regulatory frameworks reveals that 68% of the countries regulate these techniques as conventionally bred, adhering to a definition that excludes transgenes. However, inconsistencies in terminology among these countries — such as cisgenesis, SDN1, and SDN2 — remain a challenge that needs to be addressed. Continued investment in research and development and strategic market expansions will be key to unlocking new opportunities and ensuring global food security in an ever-changing landscape.

      總之，雖然監(jiān)管障礙和市場接受度等挑戰(zhàn)仍然存在，但種子行業(yè)的未來看起來很有希望。盡管歐洲的不確定性持續(xù)存在，但通過 GM 技術和 NBT 進行的創(chuàng)新將推動北美和南美等成熟市場以及亞太地區(qū)新興市場的增長。全球?qū)用娴姆ㄒ?guī)協(xié)調(diào)對于 NBT 有效促進種子市場增長至關重要，因為差異會阻礙技術的采用。S&P Global 對擁有 NBT 監(jiān)管框架的國家/地區(qū)的分析顯示，68% 的國家將這些技術作為傳統(tǒng)培育進行監(jiān)管，并遵循排除轉(zhuǎn)基因的定義。然而，這些國家/地區(qū)之間的術語不一致（例如 cisgenesis、SDN1 和 SDN2）仍然是一個需要解決的挑戰(zhàn)。在不斷變化的環(huán)境中，對研發(fā)和戰(zhàn)略市場擴張的持續(xù)投資將是釋放新機遇和確保全球糧食安全的關鍵。

      This Global Seed Market Update is a summary of a presentation on the same at the Seed Congress of the Americas 2024, held in Buenos Aires Sept. 30 to Oct. 2.

      本《全球種子市場最新動態(tài)》是 9 月 30 日至 10 月 2 日在布宜諾斯艾利斯舉行的 2024 年美洲種子大會上 就此進行的演講摘要。